Change appears to be the only certainty, but this data shows that more than 50% of normally conservative markets such as the United States and Australia have already moved to foods they were not eating just two years ago.
This is a huge shift, and while price is a mitigating factor, as well as availability, both of which can be managed by existing market dynamics, there is a significant sign of ‘value added’ factors making a huge difference in classic Western societies such as ours. These will demand a level of innovation from retailers that has not been apparent in the recent past, and could provide an opening for new businesses to gain a share of the New Zealand retail food market.
This is already apparent in the rise and rise of farmer markets, and if they don’t implode in a frenzy of small thinking and self interest, these are likely to gain a greater share, as pressures of fresh and local combine to constrain large distribution networks. More likely is continued growth in specialist retailers such as Farro, who seem best suited to understand the drive to change from consumers, are small enough to meet it, yet large enough to offer something of the competitive advantage of supermarkets.
It is these niche traders, often stimulated by a growing diversity of food cultures that are immigrant driven, who can take easy options for change towards Indian, South East Asian, Japanese, African, Middle Eastern and others, to a wider audience.
The research provided by Oxfam may not be exhaustive in the number of countries researched, but the scale is a very good example of food thinking in virtually every type of country, with the possible exceptions of East Asia, where both China and Japan are notable exclusions. However, given the shortage of research in this area, Oxfam and its providers have delivered some extremely worthwhile intelligence to those who can be bothered to read it, and act accordingly.
Another news item, that of the imminent collapse of global marine systems depriving the world of much of its seafood resource, provides yet another challenge for those concerned to manage change. In this case it is data from Australia, the US and UK that shows the high level of concern over environmental and other factors influencing food choices. Almost 10% of these markets are prepared to stop buying food for reasons other than cost or personal health, and this is a figure that is likely to grow sharply as the natural environment continues to change food availability and limit lifestyle choices.
Again it is down to retailers to manage this change in advance if they are going to take advantage of it, or, more critically, survive. For survival is suddenly a massive factor in this business, as food prices escalate to the stage where the latest G20 meeting has seen agreement in principal on managing global food prices.
The world is most certainly changing. Whether businesses survive or not depends on how they act in meeting the forecasts delivered by organisations such as Oxfam.
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